Modeling and Forecasting Total Labor Size in Bangladesh: An ARIMA Approach

• Author(s): Liton Chandra Voumik ; Iftekhar Hossain ; Bejoy Kumar Das
• Paper ID: 1702488
• Page: 102-106
• Published Date: 26-09-2020
• Published In: Iconic Research And Engineering Journals
• Publisher: IRE Journals
• e-ISSN: 2456-8880
• Volume/Issue: Volume 4 Issue 3 September-2020

Abstract

Labor force participation in the economy is increasing every year in Bangladesh; as a result, the labor force in the industry and service sectors also shows fast growth. The study was focused on identifying appropriate forecasting model for total labor force participation in the Bangladeshi economy. Secondary labor force data for the period of 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the world development indicators. The stationary of the series was tested by several popular tests such as ADF, PP, and KPSS test. The key purpose of this study is to forecast total labor participation in the economy of Bangladesh. We applied STATA and R-studio software to check the stationary and to build an appropriate ARIMA model. Based on previous data (1990-2019) we got ARIMA (0,1,0) is the best model for our research and it was validated by the lowest AIC and BIC, and minimum P-value. If the labor participation continues to increase, according to ARIMA (0,1,0) the forecasted labor participation in the economy for 2029 will be 82245415.

Keywords

ARIMA, Labor forecasting, Bangladesh

Citations

IRE Journals:
Liton Chandra Voumik , Iftekhar Hossain , Bejoy Kumar Das "Modeling and Forecasting Total Labor Size in Bangladesh: An ARIMA Approach" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 4 Issue 3 2020 Page 102-106

IEEE:
Liton Chandra Voumik , Iftekhar Hossain , Bejoy Kumar Das "Modeling and Forecasting Total Labor Size in Bangladesh: An ARIMA Approach" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 4(3)