Forecasting and Modeling Fish Production in Bangladesh Using ARIMA Model

• Author(s): Liton Chandra Voumik
• Paper ID: 1702963
• Page: 114-119
• Published Date: 01-11-2021
• Published In: Iconic Research And Engineering Journals
• Publisher: IRE Journals
• e-ISSN: 2456-8880
• Volume/Issue: Volume 5 Issue 4 October-2021

Abstract

Background/ Objectives: Fish has excellent nutritional importance and provide high-quality protein and a spacious variety of vitamins and minerals. The fish production growth reflects the consumption of proper nutrition of a country. The fish sector is one of the top rising sectors in Bangladesh. A forecast of fish production can help the implementation of policies, strategies, and budgets to encourage entrepreneurs of food sectors within the target range. The famous forecasting method namely the ARIMA or autoregressive integrated moving average model applied in this study. Methods/ Statistical analysis: The purpose of the paper is to estimate the fish production growth rate (2019–2028). Secondary data analysis and forecast model are done for the available year and fish production data extracted from WDI, world bank database, and yearbook of fisheries statistics of Bangladesh and has been collected over 49 years. We applied ADF, PP, and KPSS tests to investigate the stationary character of the data. STATA and R studio software was applied to build a structure of the ARIMA method to model and forecast the fish production growth rates. Findings: In this study, the fish production of Bangladesh from 1970 to 2018 is modeled using ARIMA (P, I, Q) methodology. The forecast of the sample period (1970–2018) showed accuracy by the selected best ARIMA (0, 2, 1) model. The model and results were validated by the lowest values of AIC and BIC, fewer P-values, graphical arrangements of ACF, and PACF plots. Both of the post sample forecasts with ARIMA (0,2,1) showed an increasing trend of (2019–2028) fish production growth rate in Bangladesh. If the increasing trend persists, according to ARIMA(0.2.1) the forecast fish production rate for 2028 is 6013331 tons. Statistical outcomes illustrate that Bangladesh’s fish production growth rate is an increasing trend that will continue growing in the future. Improvements/Applications: These findings will help policymakers, researchers, and academicians to formulate fish production-related strategies and policies more precisely.

Keywords

Forecasting, ARIMA, fish production growth rate, National Fish Policy

Citations

IRE Journals:
Liton Chandra Voumik "Forecasting and Modeling Fish Production in Bangladesh Using ARIMA Model" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals Volume 5 Issue 4 2021 Page 114-119

IEEE:
Liton Chandra Voumik "Forecasting and Modeling Fish Production in Bangladesh Using ARIMA Model" Iconic Research And Engineering Journals, 5(4)